The Next Two Years May Bring Increased Unemployment But Lower Inflation

clipboard with words federal budget at the top
Adé Hennis
January 23, 2024

In mid-December, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its Current View of the Economy, and it expects inflation to nearly hit the two percent target rate of the Federal Reserve in 2024.

The CBO provides the Congress with independent and nonpartisan information, estimations, and analysis to support the Congressional budget process. The CBO also included in its view of the economy report that it expects that the unemployment rate will go from its current rate of 3.7 percent to 4.4 percent by the fourth quarter of 2024.

If the estimation is correct, unemployment would increase, and overall economic growth would slow down. However, the U.S. economy has behaved differently than previously anticipated in recent years.

The jobless rate in America has remained below four percent for nearly two years, the longest streak since the late 1960s. So that could signal good news for consumers, if the CBO predictions for unemployment do not hold true.

In December, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged for a third straight time, and its officials signaled that they are edging closer to cutting rates as early as summer of 2024.