The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan seniors group, estimates that the Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA) will increase by 3.2 percent in 2024.
The Social Security COLA is what the Social Security Administration uses to determine increases in benefit payments. So, with an estimated 3.2 percent increase in the COLA, the average monthly retirement benefit would increase by approximately $57.30.
The Social Security Administration releases its official COLA in October 2023, with last year's adjustment being 8.7 percent, higher than the annual 2.6 percent average increase over the last 20 years. The league’s 3.2 percent increase estimate is higher than the annual average but significantly lower than the adjustment made for this year.
The administration’s official COLA will be based on inflation data for July, August, and September. With core inflation rising in July and August, it could be very likely that the COLA does increase.
It should be noted that the Social Security Administration still expects fund reserves of benefits to expire by 2037, potentially causing benefits to become fully obsolete. But in the short term, the COLA increase for next year could result in higher payments for beneficiaries.